DTN Midday Livestock Comments          04/21 11:54

   Traders Pull Back the Reins on Cattle Contracts 

   Although last week's fed cash cattle trade was surprisingly higher, traders 
are cautious to advance the cattle contracts Monday morning as the equity 
markets are lower. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex opened Monday higher, but that seemed to be somewhat 
of a head-fake for at least the cattle complex as both the live cattle and 
feeder cattle markets are now trading lower. May corn is down 2 cents per 
bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 
down 527.16 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex seemed as though it wanted to trade higher -- but as 
the days' time has slowly passed by, skepticism has taken center-stage for the 
cattle complex. One could point to last Friday's Cattle on Feed report for 
something to blame, but I also think traders are closely monitoring the equity 
markets and aren't going to trade too oppositely of what they're doing. June 
live cattle are down $0.12 at $203.95, August live cattle are down $0.15 at 
$200.02, and October live cattle are down $0.27 at $198.05. And while this may 
be the market's direction currently, I personally find the bullish push in last 
week's fed cash cattle market amid higher prices already this morning for boxed 
beef to be an equally compelling argument as to why the market should trade 
higher. So once again here we sit -- waiting for time to solve the puzzle. New 
showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and 
Nebraska/Colorado.

   Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $332 to $335, which is 
$4.00 to $7.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live 
cattle traded at mostly $208 to $210 which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than the 
previous week's weighted average as well.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.16 ($332.68) and select up $2.13 
($317.68) with a movement of 34 loads (16.32 loads of choice, 3.07 loads of 
select, 4.72 loads of trim and 9.97 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower -- not finding enough 
immediate support in Monday's market to justify pressuring resistance and 
advancing the contracts any higher. May feeders are down $1.05 at $285.80, 
August feeders are down $1.65 at $289.22 and September feeders are down $1.75 
at $287.82. Last week, sale barns saw incredible demand -- which was evidenced 
by the CME Feeder Cattle Index's price of $293.57. It will be interesting to 
see if sales are met with the same kind of demand this week.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is continuing to grind mostly higher, although a couple 
of the nearly contracts are trading slightly lower as traders question if the 
market has enough support to take on immediate resistance thresholds. June lean 
hogs are down $0.07 at $97.95, July lean hogs are steady at $98.10 and August 
lean hogs are up $0.25 at $96.70. The Spot June contract is currently trading 
near the highest point in which the market has traded since the middle of March.

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/18/2025 is up $0.25 at $85.71, and 
the actual index for 4/17/2025 is up $0.25 at $85.46. Hog prices are higher on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.91 with a weighted average price of 
$84.42, ranging from $83.00 to $87.00 on 862 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $85.44. Pork cutouts total 108.22 loads with 93.37 loads of pork 
cuts and 14.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.19, $97.19.

    




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